Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 44.976523 52.937943 61.642288 71.832045 83.398585 96.084381 111.013606
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 32.927103 43.473142 56.100818 72.188825 91.980048 115.363042 144.895045
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 26.253528 37.941699 52.956277 73.340757 99.935132 133.065341 177.015210
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 19.612225 30.859713 46.280487 68.455541 98.929351 138.676237 193.656843
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 16.819373 28.396477 45.136341 70.341629 106.422388 155.180730 224.808962
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 13.988981 25.311991 42.552460 69.676108 110.018672 166.354312 249.179716
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 12.916923 24.740530 43.514327 74.104457 120.996583 188.171682 289.173711
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.309725 21.175445 39.329033 70.174134 119.168446 191.473844 303.039747
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.334420 20.261959 39.260289 72.599777 127.007643 209.119032 338.283476
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.892590 20.241774 40.652956 77.457095 138.885423 233.318566 384.231467
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.095632 19.404210 40.498038 79.648064 146.560248 251.428514 421.792658
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.248574 18.320112 39.752242 80.701875 152.360815 266.828009 455.804060
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.977858 16.239742 37.121038 78.584858 153.423903 275.966268 482.518032
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.130753 14.931851 35.833919 78.846353 158.709026 292.440329 522.095075
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.501365 13.985506 35.121534 80.073420 165.723383 312.084736 567.677973
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.458753 11.743048 31.323154 74.811278 160.501221 310.799679 578.941565
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.105068 11.216500 31.179999 76.842717 168.864161 333.086026 630.226091
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.629743 10.219826 29.800772 76.125918 171.898473 346.181633 666.544028
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.520663 10.283875 30.940638 80.893877 185.879198 379.324063 738.495284
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.979079 8.833003 28.127504 76.662311 181.697192 379.545168 753.427895
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.817740 8.591445 28.347746 79.274191 191.483740 405.702648 814.869973
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.772729 8.750042 29.647328 84.501386 206.977119 443.108790 897.664860
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.621679 8.476722 29.732958 86.857924 216.600086 469.918915 962.446976